MELPREDICT useful in predicting CDKN2A mutations in patients from melanoma-prone families
February 11, 2019
Abstract
Background: Although rare in the general population, highly penetrant germline mutations in CDKN2A are responsible for 5-40% of melanoma cases reported in melanoma-prone families. We sought to determine whether MELPREDICT was generalizable to a global series of melanoma families and whether performance improvements can be achieved.
Methods: 2,116 familial melanoma cases were ascertained by the international GenoMEL Consortium. We recapitulated the MELPREDICT model within our data (GenoMELPREDICT) to assess performance improvements by adding phenotypic risk factors and history of pancreatic cancer. We report areas under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) along with net reclassification indices (NRI) as performance metrics.
Results: MELPREDICT performed well (AUC=0.752; 95%CI: 0.730, 0.775), and GenoMELPREDICT performance was similar (AUC=0.748; 95% CI: 0.726, 0.771). Adding a reported history of pancreatic cancer yielded discriminatory improvement (p<0.0001) in GenoMELPREDICT (AUC=0.772; 95%CI: 0.750, 0.793; NRI=0.40). Including phenotypic risk factors did not improve performance.
Conclusion: The MELPREDICT model functioned well in a global dataset of familial melanoma cases. Adding pancreatic cancer history improved model prediction. GenoMELPREDICT is a simple tool for predicting CDKN2A mutational status among melanoma patients from melanoma-prone families and can aid in counselling these patients towards genetic testing or cancer risk counselling.
Source:
Nicholas J. Taylor et al., Estimating CDKN2A mutation carrier probability among global familial melanoma cases using GenoMELPREDICT, Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology, 2019, ISSN 0190-9622, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaad.2019.01.079.